“None of this yet resembles a credit cycle turning, and the signals that would show one are quiet… What the data describes is closer to the opposite of a contraction: a credit expansion absorbing record supply and charging progressively more for it. The pricing runs in a ladder.
…
Where the ladder breaks is at the bottom. CCC and Lower Option Adjusted Spread signal rose twenty-two points over thirty days to 88 and sits at Critical, markedly higher than the Investment Grade or High Yield spread signal levels, and AI paper does not price at CCC. Private Credit Stress sits at 96, up thirty-one points, consistent with reporting data center financing has moved toward private credit and off-balance-sheet structures where the ultimate holder is harder to identify. What separates an expansion from a contraction is not the level of spreads but whether new issuance keeps clearing. An expansion growing more expensive still places its paper; a contraction is when deals stop pricing at any spread. The market is still clearing. It is clearing at a price that has moved in one direction.“
…
Where the ladder breaks is at the bottom. CCC and Lower Option Adjusted Spread signal rose twenty-two points over thirty days to 88 and sits at Critical, markedly higher than the Investment Grade or High Yield spread signal levels, and AI paper does not price at CCC. Private Credit Stress sits at 96, up thirty-one points, consistent with reporting data center financing has moved toward private credit and off-balance-sheet structures where the ultimate holder is harder to identify. What separates an expansion from a contraction is not the level of spreads but whether new issuance keeps clearing. An expansion growing more expensive still places its paper; a contraction is when deals stop pricing at any spread. The market is still clearing. It is clearing at a price that has moved in one direction.“